Thursday, October 15, 2009

Typhoon Next Week

TS 22W continues to move west as it passed south of Guam this Thursday morning (Philippine Time). Maximum sustained winds are around 65kph with wind gusts reaching 85kph. It is moving west at a quick pace of 40kph. It should slow down a little and move towards WNW.

There is a very strong agreement between today's model runs. Every computer model forecasts the system to slowly intensify, becoming a major Cat 3 (or 4) Hurricane before it makes landfall in the Philippines. Almost all models take the storm to Northern Luzon, with possible landfall at Cagayan or Isabela provinces. The timing is also strongly agreed upon--possible occurence would be around late Tuesday to early Wednesday.
Please take note, however, that the system is still 5 days away; and although the models seem to be in agreement, we expect a shift somewhere in the coming runs. Overall, the chances of this storm making landfall somewhere in N. Luzon is becoming pretty high.


This system continues to be poorly organized as it exits the Philippines. Scattered rain showers will still affect the entire country due also to the ITCZ in the area.

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