Wednesday, October 14, 2009

TD 22W Spotted; Could be a Threat


The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous post is now upgraded to a tropical depression. TD 22W is moving west at 25kph. It has maximum sustained winds of 45kph. Intensification is highly likely as the system moves across the Pacific. It is forecasted to pass south of Guam by tomorrow night as a tropical storm. It should continue to gather strength, possibly becoming a typhoon by Friday or Saturday morning. Models can't agree yet on the track. Two solutions emerged in the latest runs: a more northward track, missing the Philippines (just like Quedan); or it would continue moving west then turn wnw and then possibly hit northern Luzon as a strong typhoon.

Unfortunately, we are leaning more on the latter forecast as there's no strong reason yet for this system to turn northward. The high pressure in the northern Pacific will be the key for the track of this system and right now, it looks like it will steer this TD to the west. People in Luzon should be vigilant and keep an eye for further developments regarding this threat.

Low Pressure in the Visayas

The LPA continues to bring rain and winds across the central Philippines. By Wednesday night into early Thursday, it should be in the South China Sea. Forecast for strengthening doesn't change, although the timing is uncertain. Circulation is still weak and a little disorganized, especially in the southern quadrant.

Forecast for Thursday

North Luzon

Occasional rain with slight to moderate wind from the northeast/east turning southwest/south.

Rest of Luzon

Widespread light to moderate rain showers. Moderate winds.


Rain, sometimes heavy. Moderate winds from west turning south.


Light to moderate rain. With light to moderate winds from the west turning southwest.

Image from PSU

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