Saturday, October 3, 2009

Typhoon Pepeng Stalls, Continues to Affect N. Luzon

Meteorology is a science of uncertainty and today is just an example. While the main forecast on where TY Pepeng will land did not change dramatically, its path for the next few days did. Numerical models, as well as other weather bureaus, have revised their forecast for this certain storm. It is now predicted to move NW and then make a loop, possibly extending its stay in the country. As of 11am PST, Typhoon Pepeng is about 120km NNW of Laoag City. It has decelerated considerably in the past 24 hours and is now moving at a slow pace of 10kph to the NW. Strong winds and occasionally heavy rains will affect te extreme Northern Luzon. Batanes Islands, Cagayan, and the Ilocos provinces will still suffer from Pepeng's effects in the next 24-36 hours. The main forecast for Pepeng is to remain the N. China Sea and to wait for Super Typhoon Melor, who is approaching from the west to pass through the PAR, eventually turning north to Japan. Once this happens, Pepeng can now move tho the NE passing through Eastern Taiwan. There is a possibility that Pepeng could make a second landfall in extreme northern Cagayan or Ilocos Norte although this has a small chance.

Typhoon Melor could enter PAR in the next day or so; if this happens it will be named as Typhoon Quedan. Melor isn't expected to directly affect the Philippine islands although it could bring rains and strengthen the southwest monsoon. Typhoon Melor will play a significant role though for Pepeng's path.

After these two storms have passed, the Philippines can expect a relatively quieter days ahead.
100409 250pm PST

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