Sunday, October 4, 2009

And the Uncertainties Continue

Pepeng has moved very little this past 24 hours. Last locations is about 220km NNW of Laoag City. It's moving at a very slow pace, will basically stay in North Luzon for the next day or so. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds now at around 100kph. Typhoon Melor continues to intensify as it nears the PAR. It has, however, changed its direction and is now moving WNW. Typhoon Melor, "Quedan" as PAGASA will call it, is crucial to Pepeng's path. The forecast from yesterday doesn't change. It will remain in the area for the next 24-36 hours; two possibilities still exist beyond that time frame. A more possible scenario, and this one being adopted by most weather bureaus, is that Pepeng will take a dive to the SW, eventually leaving the PAR by Tuesday. Another possibility is that Pepeng will turn to the east and possibly make another landfall in the Cagayan area. Only two major models now support it--CMC and GFS.

It all boils down to Melor's influence, as well as the troughs and ridges surrounding the region. Either way, Pepeng's winds and rains will still affect the extreme northern Luzon in the coming days.
100509 230pm PST

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