Saturday, October 3, 2009

Typhoon Pepeng Batters Cagayan

Latest Update

Latest satellite data shows Typhoone Pepeng is less than 100km east of Tuguegarao. It is moving NW at 24kph and has maximum winds of up to 170kph. It should make landfall in the Northern Tip of Cagayan right about now. It should then move WNW and then make a sharp turn to the East. Therefore, Areas under signal #3 will still feel the effects of the typhoon in the next 12-24 hours.Aside from very strong winds, Typhoon Pepeng also brings moderate to heavy rainfall. Since it is expected to remain in north Luzon until Sunday evening at the earliest, flooding and landslides will be a problem. Although not as heavy as Ondoy's rainfall, places near the mountains, as well as low lying areas, can suffer from these rains. The 18hour animation shows the rain accumulation every 6 hours.

Waves can also wash out weak structures built near the shore. Ships of all sizes should not try to head out to sea.

In-Depth Forecast

Next 12 hours: Typhoon Pepeng should be within 120km north of Tuguegarao. By this time, its winds should have decreased to around 130-150kph. Heavy rain and high waves are now expected to be felt at the northeastern side of Luzon (eg Laoag, Ilocos Norte). It is moving NW at around 15-20kph.

100409 11am Sunday: Typhoon Pepeng is now turning to the NE and should be about 150m north or Tugeugarao. Typhoon force winds should be felt at the Batanes Group of Islands. While Tropical force winds can affect Ilocos Norte, Kalinga-Apayao, ang Cagayan. Moderate rainfall is also expected. Forecasts following this time frame can change in the next bulletins.

100509 11am Monday: Uncertainty in the track of the storm. Two solutions are likely: Pepeng conitnuing its WNW-NW motion, similar movement from Saturday; this will result into Taiwan being in its path. Another possiblity is that the forecast for 11am Sunday will actually hold true, meaning that Typhoon Pepeng is now moving ENE-NE and could possibly avoid Taiwan. PAGASA is leaning more on the former solution. I, however, am leaning towards the latter. PAGASA is now the outlier here since several weather bureaus and numerical models are predicting that Typhoon Melor will have an interaction with Pepeng. The strong ridge from the NorthEast will also have an impact on Pepengs track, therefore causing it to turn more to the East. Either way, during this time, Pepeng should still be within the PAR bringing widespread rains to the northern tip of Luzon. Typhoon force winds will continue to affect Batanes Islands.
100309 330pm PST

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