Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Stubborn Pepeng to Make Another Landfall

Pepeng's Third Landfall

Tropical Storm Pepeng's last location was about 100kms North East of Tuguegarao. It has maintained its strength of 65kph and remains a weak tropical storm. There is a slight chance it could strengthen again. It is still forcasted to go west, although PAGASA seems to stick with their forecast for an easterly track. In case Pepeng turns west (as it is now doing, according to the latest updates), it'll make its third landfall here in the Philippines; a second landfall for Cagayan Province. Therefore, gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall should linger in the area for the next 2 days.


24-36 Hours (Friday PST)

Pepeng will track across the mountainous north Luzon, eventually losing a significant amount of its strength (convection). The speed and the timing are still unclear although we're expecting Pepeng's crossing to last 2-3 days.

36-48 Hours (Saturday PST)

Pepeng could remain as a Tropical Depression at this time frame. It will probably exit Western Luzon (Ilocos) by Saturday night.

48-72 hours (Sunday/Monday PST)

Once it hits South China Sea, it will regain some of its convective activity and will again feed on the warm waters meaning winds and rain can still affect Pangasinan and Ilocos during this time.

TY Melor (Final Update)

Final update for TY Melor as it nears making landfall around Kyoto, Japan. Still a strong typhoon with winds of up to 160kph. East coast of Japan will have to contend with high waves, strong winds, and heavy rain. Cities like Kyoto, Nagoya, and Tokyo could deal with some significant effects to be brought by Melor.

West Pacific

Elsewhere in the Pacific, the two Tropical Disturbances discussed in the last post continue to move through the ocean. The former seemed to have weakened and has lost some of its activity. The latter, however, have showed signs of further development. No models have forecasted yet for another Tropical Storm. Will continue to watch the two systems as they near the Philippine Area of Responsiblity. There is a moderate chance one of these two will develop into a tropical storm. Both are still thousands of kilometers away from the Philippine Islands.

1000809 4am PST

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