Thursday, October 8, 2009

Pepeng Still Over Luzon, TD21W Forms

Tropical Depression Pepeng

Pepeng has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression (should be noted PAGASA downgraded this system more than 24 hours ago). Pepeng is 100km NE of Baguio City. It has winds of about 50kph and moving west at 5-10kph. Flooding will continue due to heavy rain and dams releasing water.

12-24 Hours (Friday)

If its present movement continues, Pepeng should exit the island of Luzon by Saturday morning. By then, the system has weakend slightly to around 40kph. As it enters the waters of S. China Sea, it should regain strength and convection.

24-48 Hours (Saturday)

Pepeng should accelerate and strengthen, possibly to Tropical Storm Category with winds of up to 70kph. Pangasinan, Zambales, and Ilocos Sur should still be under Signal #1 (if not 2).

48-72 Hours (Sunday-Monday)

Pepeng should exit the PAR by this time as a minimal Tropical Storm.


As Typhoon Melor dissipates after going through Japan, another Tropical Depression has formed east of the Philippines. The disturbance we've been watching for the last couple of days has now developed further. The good news is that the system is north enough that if it'll continue its present movement, it should avoid the Philippine Islands. It is possible that it could turn west (depending on the ridge on the N. Pacific) so it should still be monitored.

The other low pressure, just southeast of 21W has remained disorganized and continues to move west. It should remain as a LPA in the next 12-24hours as 21W strengthens. There is a possibility that they could interact and this LPA will be absorbed by 21W.

100909 3am PST

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