Tuesday, October 6, 2009

TS Pepeng Batters N. Luzon; TY Melor Heads for Japan, Tropical Disturbances Spotted East of RP

TS Pepeng

It has been almost 18 hours since Pepeng has made landfall. It has significantly weakened now due to continuous interaction with the mountainous terrain in Norther Luzon (eg Mt. Province, Kalinga, etc). It is moving ESE at 10kph; winds have decreased to 65kph which is a very weak Tropical Storm (based on PAGASA's classification). PAGASA has already downgraded the system into a mere Tropical Depression. JMA and JTWC, on the other hand, continue to classify Pepeng as a Tropical Storm. Almost all areas in Northern Luzon, Regions 1, 2, and CAR should be ready for further disasters. Continuous rains these past few days could make the already saturated soil more unstable as another round of moderate rain falls, meaning landslides and flash floods will be a threat.

No major change in forecast although PAGASA has already adjusted their forecast, calling for an easterly track fro Pepeng. As usual, they have become the outlier. It should be noted however, that they were one of the few who initially called for a second landfall in RP.

Nevertheless, we're sticking to a westerly track for Pepeng, expecting it to make a sharp turn within 12 hours.

TY Melor

Melor continues to weaken as it encounters strong wind shear and jet stream. It should make landfall near Kyoto, Japan in the next 24-36 hours as a moderate Typhoon.

Tropical Disturbances East of RP

Two tropical disturbances have been spotted well east of the Philippine Islands (around Micronesia). The first TD has thunderstorms with a very weak circulation and is moving NNW. Further development is likely and will be watched. Judging by its current movement, this TD (if ever it evolves into a TS) will likely take the same path as Pepeng did, although this one might not make a landfall at all. The second disturbance also has the same characteristics as the former; this one moving WNW.

Both have fairly moderate chances of further development due to relatively weak wind shear aloft; warm Pacific should also be taken into account. Expect these to affect (if ever they gather enough strength) the islands by Saturday or Sunday.
Satellite Image courtesy of Penn State Meteorology
100709 3pm PST

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