Friday, October 23, 2009

Ramil Weakens, Won't Land

Ramil has been downgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm; it has winds of 110kph and is moving North at 4-6kph. Please note that the motion has changed and it seems that Ramil will spare Northern Luzon from a direct landfall. Its speed has also significantly changed and has basically stalled north of Cagayan. No increase in speed expected so expect Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and islands north of Luzon to receive heavy to very heavy amounts of rain in the next 24-36 hours.

As seen on the map above, Ramil should remain within North Luzon in the next 3-5 days which could result to massive flooding and landslides in the areas affected. Rough waters should also be expected together high storm surges that could reach up tp 2-3meters.
Rainfall accumulations of 50mm or more per six hours should fall in the northern section of Cagayan and the islands of Batanes. Heavy accumulations of more than 100mm/6 hours could be received in isolated areas. Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, and points south could have increased chances of light to moderate rain although amounts wouldn't be as significant compared to the areas north.We have also made a map showing the 4day forecast for selected cities. This map conforms to our forecasts above as well as to PAGASA's own extended forecast posted in their weather bulletin.
102309 430pm PST

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