Thursday, October 22, 2009

Ramil Slows Down, Maintains Strength
Ramil has slowed down off to the north of Cagayan Province, about 300km ENE of Tuguegarao. It is moving WSW at 8kph. Light to moderate rain will impact Cagayan and the islands off north in the next 3-6 hours, therefore rainfall map has already been posted. Signal #2 winds should also be felt across these areas in the next few hours.


There has been a considerably major change in today's forecast. While Ramil will continue with its present movement, it will significantly slow down tonight due to the poor steering environment caused by the fighting High Pressure Areas located NE and NW of the system. We have acknowledged this change and therefore we forecast Ramil to become quasi stationary until Friday. Landfall will be around Friday night at the earliest. Since Ramil is slowing down, the warmer waters and unstable environment will help it intensify, possibly reaching Cat 2 status by Friday afternoon. Ramil's prolonged stay will mean that Cagayan will experience deteriorating conditions come Thursday evening into Friday. Continuous rain will trigger massive floods and landslides in the region. We think Ramil will slowly trek west-northwestward by Saturday and as it interacts with land, it might be downgraded to a Tropical Storm. It is expected to curve to the north by Monday. It will accelerate and reintensify as the Ridge to the East assumes control.



102209 400pm PST

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