Sunday, October 11, 2009

Attention Turns to a Low Pressure Out East

A tropical disturbance was spotted east of the Philippines. This is the same system first mentioned in the previous post. A number of forecast models have hinted for that low to cross the country in the next 3-4 days. One model, the CMC that is, have went on to predict for this low to strengthen and eventually become a tropical storm. Today's latest model runs have retained that low. NOGAPS and ECMWF show the system to only strengthen once it enters the South China Sea. The timing between these models are very close; predicting for the crossing to happen between October 14 and 15 (Thursday and Friday).

Monday-Wednesday, the Philippines should expect generally clear skies with slight to moderate winds from the North and Northwest. Southern half of the country will have higher chances of rain due to the tropical disturbance east of Mindanao. Have high confidence on forecasts until Wednesday. Subsequent days, however, remains unclear and solely depends on the low pressure. Will it strengthen?? Let's hope not.

Note: *Map provided by the meteorological division of PSU.
** Nepartak is mistakenly identified as a typhoon. It should be noted that as of this moment, Nepartak remains a tropical storm.
101209 0230PM PST

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