Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Typhoon Halola Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 072315

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Halola has intensified even further this morning and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The eye of Halola was last located approximately 800km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Halola is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows an eye has appeared and continues to become more defined this morning. Surrounding this eye is strong convective banding along with good radial outflow. While the eyewall isn't exactly well established based on microwave analysis, Halola is still exhibiting good characteristics for a typhoon. We expect Halola to at least maintain its present intensity, and may even strengthen a little bit tonight as it moves across the Philippine Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track is aligned with the forecasts from the agencies in the region (JTWC, JMA) and is also in line with the consensus among the computer model outputs. We expect Halola to continue moving in a general west northwestward track towards the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. Halola is forecast to move close to the island of Okinawa by early Saturday morning as a weakening Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected across much of the islands this weekend.

Halola will, then, turn northward moving across the East China Sea and then weakening to a Category 1 Typhoon by Sunday morning. Latest model guidance shows Halola possibly moving towards the Korean Peninsula by Sunday and may bring widespread rains across the region. Even parts of Kyushu and Western Honshu should expect stormy conditions to affect the area this weekend.

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