Monday, May 4, 2015

Tropical Storm Noul Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 050515

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Tropical Storm Noul continues to intensify as it nears the State of Yap. The center of Noul was last located approximately 80km east of Yap or about 540km northeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Noul is currently moving westward at 10kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Warning for Yap Island and Tropical Storm Warning for Fais and Ulithi. Residents are advised to complete their preparations for the impending storm. The agency is expecting winds of more than 120kph (74mph) beginning later tonight and lasting through Wednesday morning (local time). Aside from strong winds, heavy rains and high surf are also expected to linger over the next 12 to 24 hours.

For the latest updates and warnings from NWS Guam, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convection forming around the center of circulation. Tight banding is observed through microwave imagery with an eye beginning to be discernible as it wraps around Noul's center. The system is currently in an area of low to moderate wind shear and good outflow which will promote steady intensification over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Noul will continue moving slowly westward and will strike the island of Yap later tonight. Prolonged stormy conditions will increase the potential for wind damage as well as that from flooding and storm surge. The island will see improving weather conditions tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday).

Noul is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday morning and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Dodong' by PAGASA. Computer models are starting to converge on a track that will see Noul move in a steady west-northwest trajectory in the coming days. Favorable weather conditions will allow for steady intensification as Noul moves across the Philippine Sea. By Saturday, the storm is forecast to turn northward but this turn will be key as to how close it will get to the Philippine Island.

Our preliminary forecast is based on the consensus from the latest computer model outputs of this morning. Right now, there is a moderate chance that the island of Luzon will see direct impacts from Noul this weekend. Obviously, this forecast track will change many more times in the coming days but we want to highlight the potential for a stormy weather this coming weekend especially for Northern Luzon.

We'll have another update later this evening.

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