Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 051015
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Noul (Bagyong Dodong) has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. The eye of Noul was last located approximately 130km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 230km southeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Noul is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.
As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Apayao, Isabela, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands. Signal #2 is in effect for Northern Aurora, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Batanes, and Quirino. Signal #1 is up for Southern Aurora, Abra, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and Nueva Ecija.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the very symmetrical pinhole eye of Noul. The eye has gotten rounder in appearance as strong convective banding tightened and become more organized overnight. The recent intensification is due to the weak wind shear, excellent radial outflow, and warm sea temperatures. Noul could intensify even more in the next 6 hours before it clips the province of Cagayan.
Radar Image from DOST-PAGASA
The satellite image and the radar image above both show rainclouds associated with Noul are now affecting parts of Northern Luzon, particularly the provinces of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. We expect nearby provinces to start feeling the effects of Noul later this morning. However, the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be confined along the coasts of Cagayan, Isabela, and perhaps Apayao. Up to 200m of rain is possible in these areas which could lead to landslides and flash floods. Aside from the heavy rains, high surf and the threat of storm surge should be expected along the coast of Cagayan.
Please consult with your local officials for the latest warnings and advisories for your area. Click HERE for the latest radar images and forecasts from PAGASA (Project NOAH)
Super Typhoon Noul (Bagyong Dodong) will continue moving northwestward and is expected to clip the northeastern part of Cagayan (near Sta. Ana). The good news is that the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be limited to a small area in Northeastern Luzon. Damaging winds of up to 200kph may be felt along the coast in Cagayan and weaker winds elsewhere. However, the entire region should still be prepared for the stormy conditions that will prevail throughout today.
We'll have another update later today.