Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Tropical Depression 01W Update #1

Issued (05 UTC) 12pm PhT 011415

The newest tropical cyclone of the 2015 Season has formed this morning. Tropical Depression 01W was last located approximately 140km north northeast of Yap or about 700km southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 01W is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Yap and nearby islands due to the threat from TD 01W. Strong winds of up to 60kph and rough surf should be expected. Please consult and follow the warnings from your local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection building along the northern half of the system.The low-level circulation center is still partially exposed as TD 01W is currently in an area of moderate wind shear. We expect the conditions in the region to eventually become more favorable for intensificaiton.

Yap and nearby islands will continue experiencing stormy conditions throughout the afternoon and into the evening. TD 01W will then move westward and into the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Amang' by PAGASA.

It is still too early to tell whether this cyclone will make landfall in the Philippines. Computer models are still showing disagreement with the track but the chances of being affected, at least indirectly, by this system is increasing. We'll continue to update on the progress and forecasts for this cyclone in the coming days. Expect weather conditions to become worse, especially along Eastern Philippines, beginning Saturday.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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