Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Typhoon Haiyan Update #2

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 110513

Tropical Storm Haiyan has intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon earlier this afternoon and continues to move across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 750km south southwest of Guam or about 950km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Haiyan is currently moving westward at a speed of 25kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued several Typhoon Warnings and Watches for the islands scattered across the Pacific, especially around Palau and Yap. The agency is expecting damaging winds to occur within the next 24 hours. For more updates on warnings and public advisories, please click HERE (NWS Guam Website).

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a developing central dense overcast with strong convective activity characterized by very cold cloud tops. Further analysis also suggest an eye is beginning to form and could show up on satellite images later this evening. Haiyan also has very good radial outflow helping with the intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Haiyan is forecast to continue moving generally westward in the next 24 hours. It will move near the islands of Palau and Yap by tomorrow morning bringing damaging winds and heavy rains in the region. Everyone living in these areas is urged to take action now!

Typhoon Haiyan will also continue intensifying in the next 2 to 3 days as favorable conditions prevail along its path. We expect Haiyan to become a Category 2 tomorrow and become a Category 3 Typhoon by Thursday. Haiyan is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early Thursday and will be given a local name of Bagyong Yolanda by PAGASA. By that time, we are also expecting a period of rapid intensification as it moves across the Philippine Sea which could help it become a Category 4 Typhoon.

The main thing to note is that Haiyan is forecast to plow into Visayas by Friday afternoon possibly as a Super Typhoon. If you are reading our blog from the Eastern Philippines, please start preparing now and always monitor the progress of this powerful and dangerous typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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