Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Tropical Depression 30W Update #5

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 110513

Tropical Depression 30W (Formerly Bagyong Wilma) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is now moving across the South China Sea. The center was last located approximately 460km west northwest of Puerto Princesa City or about 880km east of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 30W is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convection wrapping around the low-level center. However, due to the speed of the system, the core can't quite consolidate properly so far. We still think it'll reach Tropical Storm-strength before it moves into Vietnam.

But even if it doesn't become a Tropical Storm, TD 30W is still forecast to bring widespread rainfall across Southern Vietnam beginning tomorrow morning. As much as 150mm of rain is forecast in the southern region including the city of Ho Chi Minh. Gusty winds could also be a threat.

By Thursday, TD 30W is forecast to move into Cambodia as a weak depression, bringing rains in that region as well. TD 30W could dissipate after but may still bring rains across parts of Thailand later in the week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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