Monday, October 14, 2013

Typhoon Wipha Update #5

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101513

Typhoon Wipha continues to slightly weaken this morning as it moves closer to Mainland Japan. The storm center was last located approximately 630km east northeast of Okinawa or about 1,000km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds have slightly weakened to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Wipha is moving northward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the expansive cloud cover of Wipha. However, convective activity is weakening and the southern half of the eyewall has completely succumbed to dry air entrainment. Furthermore, stronger upper-level winds are beginning to shear the northern half of the circulation.

Despite these setbacks, though, Wipha remains a powerful Category 2 Typhoon. Its wind field is still pretty big; in fact, the eye passed about 300km east of the Daito Islands this morning, and yet observations from the islands indicated wind gusts of up to 140kph!

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate rains are beginning to affect Shikoku and parts of Honshu. In fact, rain bands have been affecting Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu since this morning. These rain bands will continue to spread north and east later tonight. The prolonged rains could bring amounts of up to 200mm and that is why the Japan Meteorological Agency has begun issuing rainfall advisories in many prefectures. For the latest radar images, warnings, and forecasts from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Wipha should begin turning to the northeast later today. Stronger upper-level winds, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea-surface temperatures will lead to continuous weakening. However, we expect Wipha to maintain its typhoon intensity as it approaches the Kanto Region by tomorrow morning.

Latest guidance show a possible landfall just southeast of Tokyo by tomorrow morning. The metro area will definitely feel stormy conditions beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Strong winds of up to 120kph are possible along with heavy rains and high waves along the bay. Residents are urged to heed the warnings of the local authorities. As always, stay safe!

We'll have another update later today.

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