Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Typhoon Francisco (Urduja) Update #13

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 102313

Typhoon Francisco has slightly weakened as it moves closer to the Ryukyu Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 280km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Francisco is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC


Latest satellite image shows the inner core of Francisco is starting to get devoid of any strong convection. However, a relatively strong band still exists on the northwestern quadrant. The weakening has been slow, despite the cooler sea temperatures and abundance of dry air, due to the increased poleward outflow due to the westerly winds.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image out of Okinawa shows the band of light to moderate rain moving in from the southeast. This will eventually impact the islands in the next 3 hours or so. We expect anywhere from 30 to 60mm of rain through tomorrow morning. Strong winds of up to 120kph could also be felt especially in exposed areas and coastal locations. For the latest radar image and forecasts from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website).

Stormy conditions will persist across Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands for another 24 hours. Francisco should begin to turn northward and then recurve northeastward by tomorrow evening (Thursday). Due to the proximity and strength of Super Typhoon Lekima, there will be a small interaction between Francisco and that storm. Lekima will steer Francisco just south of Honshu and won’t make landfall. However, we expect Francisco to track close enough from Japan that it will still bring storm conditions especially along the coast of Chubu and Kanto Regions this weekend.

We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

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