Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Typhoon Francisco (Urduja) Update #12

Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 102313

Typhoon Francisco (Bagyong Urduja) continues to weaken as it slowly nears the Ryukyu Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 420km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Francisco is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Francisco continues to get clouded and the convective activity around the circulation continues to weaken as well. More and more dry air is entraining into the core and the cooler sea surface temperatures in the region is also helping with the weakening. However, Francisco can still bring gusty winds and light to moderate rains across the Ryukyu Islands beginning today and into tomorrow.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar out of Okinawa shows the inner rain bands of Francisco moving in from the southeast. Some islands may see up to 50mm of rain over the next 24 hours as Francisco tracks near the area. Some of these bands may bring gusty winds of up to 100kph especially along the coast. Stormy, but manageable, weather should last for the next 24 to 36 hours but should begin to improve by late Friday. For the latest radar images and forecasts from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Francisco should weaken to a Tropical Storm by tomorrow as it moves just east of Okinawa. It will then recurve northeastward and will track south of Mainland Japan. We no longer expect any landfall, however, Francisco may still track close enough to bring inclement weather across Southern Shikoku and Honshu.

We'll have another update later today.

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