Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Typhoon Francisco (Urduja) Update #11

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 102213

Typhoon Francisco (Bagyong Urduja) has maintained its strength as it slowly moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 650km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Francisco is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Francisco remains intact. Even the convective activity has slightly increased near the eye today. However, dry air continues to mix in with the circulation and further analysis reveals that the inner core is starting to cave in. With that said, Francisco is still capable of bringing strong winds and even heavy rains along its path.

Typhoon Francisco (Urduja) will continue moving northwestward tonight nearing Okinawa and the Daito Islands. Winds of up to 120kph are possible across Daito-jima since the eye is forecast to pass within 100km of that island chain. Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands may also see some strong winsd but we're not expecting any typhoon-force conditions. Rains and high waves should also be expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Francisco is then forecast to recurve to the northeast beginning tomorrow evening (Wednesday) and will pass east of Kyushu and south of Shikoku by Thursday. During this time, we expect Francisco to weaken to a Tropical Storm as conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclones. Track consensus is no longer showing a landfall in Honshu. However, Francisco may still move near the island to bring stormy conditions along the southern coast, including Tokyo.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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