Monday, October 21, 2013

Typhoon Francisco Update #10

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 102213

Typhoon Francisco continues to weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and earned the local name "Bagyong Urduja." The eye of the storm was last located approximately 800km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Francisco is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convection continues to weaken as dry air becomes more entrained in the circulation. The decrease in sea surface temperatures are also causing weakening. However, note that Francisco is still pretty much a strong and dangerous typhoon as it moves near Okinawa. The circulation is still producing strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Francisco (Bagyong Urduja) will continue moving northwestward and will move near Okinawa by tomorrow. Light rains and strong winds are possible across Okinawa and nearby islands. The islands of Minami-Daito will experience the strongest winds as the eye is forecast to pass within 100km of the said islands.

Francisco could weaken down to a Tropical Storm by Thursday night. During this time, the system will also accelerate and turn northeastward. Increasing winds and cooler sea temperatures will lead to quick weakening and the presence of the baroclinic zone will also lead to extra-tropical transition. Francisco could make landfall in the island of Honshu by Friday evening and could bring stormy conditions across Chubu and Kanto Regions by Saturday.

We'll have another update later today.

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