Friday, October 18, 2013

Typhoon Francisco Update #5

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 101813

Typhoon Francisco intensifies even further as it begins to turn to the northwest. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 480km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 230kph with gusts of up to 285kph. Typhoon Francisco is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

The National Weather Service has dropped all Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches across Micronesia.  However, High Surf Advisories remain for much of the region due to the rough waters being churned out by Francisco’s circulation. Widespread rains have pretty much ended across the islands with Guam receiving about 60mm. Winds should also begin to die down although the sea may still be choppy in the coming days. Visit NWS Guam by clicking HERE for more information.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Francisco becoming even more symmetrical and cloud free. Convective activity surrounding the eye also continues to be strong. Radial outflow remains very robust as well. Microwave analysis doesn’t hint of any impending eyewall replacement cycle so we think Francisco will maintain its intensity if not strengthen a little bit more.

Typhoon Francisco is now turning to the northwest and will continue in that heading for the next two days. It may become a Super Typhoon by tomorrow as it moves across the Philippine Sea. We will have to watch for any signs of eyewall replacement cycle as this could definitely affect the intensity of Francisco in the coming days.

As for the track, computer models remain split on where to take Francisco. GFS is showing a track towards Okinawa while the European Model (ECMWF) is taking the typhoon just south of Honshu by early next week. However, there definitely is a high chance that somewhere in Japan will see stormy conditions in the coming days. Hopefully, we can pinpoint the exact track this weekend.
We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

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