Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 101813
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Typhoon Francisco intensifies even further as it begins to
turn to the northwest. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 480km
northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 230kph with gusts of up
to 285kph. Typhoon Francisco is moving north northwestward at 15kph.
The National Weather Service has dropped all Tropical Storm Warnings
and Watches across Micronesia. However,
High Surf Advisories remain for much of the region due to the rough waters
being churned out by Francisco’s circulation. Widespread rains have pretty much
ended across the islands with Guam receiving about 60mm. Winds should also
begin to die down although the sea may still be choppy in the coming days.
Visit NWS Guam by clicking HERE for more information.
IR Image from FNMOC
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Francisco becoming
even more symmetrical and cloud free. Convective activity surrounding the eye
also continues to be strong. Radial outflow remains very robust as well.
Microwave analysis doesn’t hint of any impending eyewall replacement cycle so
we think Francisco will maintain its intensity if not strengthen a little bit
more.
Typhoon Francisco is now turning to the northwest and will
continue in that heading for the next two days. It may become a Super Typhoon
by tomorrow as it moves across the Philippine Sea. We will have to watch for
any signs of eyewall replacement cycle as this could definitely affect the
intensity of Francisco in the coming days.
As for the track, computer models remain split on where to
take Francisco. GFS is showing a track towards Okinawa while the European Model
(ECMWF) is taking the typhoon just south of Honshu by early next week. However,
there definitely is a high chance that somewhere in Japan will see stormy
conditions in the coming days. Hopefully, we can pinpoint the exact track this
weekend.
We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.
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