Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Typhoon Francisco Update #14

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 102413

Typhoon Francisco is now bringing inclement weather across the Ryukyu Islands and is starting to recurve. The storm center was last located approximately 230km east southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Francisco is moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows weak and ragged convection surrounding the circulation. The eye is barely recognizable but still intact. There are still bands of moderate convection forming, especially along the northern periphery, aided by the poleward outflow channel. Some of these convection have been moving across the Ryukyu Islands bringing a mix of light rains and gusty winds.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar out of Okinawa shows the outer rain bands with light to moderate rains impacting Okinawa and Amami Islands. Some places have received up to 30mm of rain so far. These bands can also bring gusty winds of up to 130kph as was recorded in Minami-Daito earlier this morning. Inclement weather will likely stay for another 24 hours as Francisco slowly moves to the north. For the latest radar images and forecasts from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Francisco should weaken to a Tropical Storm later tonight. It will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands and should turn to the northeast by tomorrow morning. As it recurves, it will begin to accelerate quickly as it starts to get embedded along the strong westerly winds. Francisco should also start extra-tropical transition by this point.

Francisco will be tracking south of Mainland Japan this weekend but will still be close enough to bring unsettled weather across Southern Honshu especially in the Chubu and Kanto Regions. We are not expecting any significant impacts but light rains, gusty winds, and rough surf will be likely. Francisco will then move towards the North Pacific away from Japan by Sunday.

We'll have another update later today.

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