Thursday, October 24, 2013

Tropical Storm Francisco Update #15

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 102513

Francisco has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it slowly moves away from the Ryukyu Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 380km northeast of Okinawa or about 860km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Francisco is currently moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows Francisco is getting more asymmetrical this morning as dry air continues to affect convective activity. Strong poleward outflow is sustaining the strength and slowing down the weakening but the cooler sea surface temperatures will take their toll on the system.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image out of Amami shows the bands of light to moderate rains are beginning to move away from the Ryukyu Islands. However, a frontal boundary moving across the Sea of Japan is being enhanced by the circulation and tropical moisture associated with Francisco. Hence, widespread light to moderate rains are falling across parts of Honshu and Shikoku and will likely continue through tomorrow. Many areas have already received more than 100mm of rain and another 100mm is possible and will increase the chances of landslides and flashfloods. For the latest radar images and forecasts from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Francisco will continue on its northeastward track and will pass south of Mainland Japan over the next two days. Rains and strong winds due to the main circulation, as well as the frontal boundary, will persist across Shikoku and Honshu in the coming days. Francisco is forecast to become completely extra-tropical by Sunday and will continue moving into the North Pacific.

We'll have another update later today.

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