Thursday, October 3, 2013

Typhoon Fitow (Quedan) Update #6

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 100313

Fitow (Bagyong Quedan) continues to intensify and has now been upgraded to a typhoon. It was last located approximately 620km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 950km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are up to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Fitow is moving northward at 10kph.

IR image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows an eye is beginning to form surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Microwave analysis also suggests that the eyewall is nearly complete and we should see continued improvement in the overall structure of the storm. Fitow remains in a favorable environment as of the moment with weak wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and upper-level conditions that are providing good radial outflow.

Forecast Track (NO T OFFICIAL!)

We have made significant changes to our forecast track since yesterday. We now expect Fitow to move close to the island of Okinawa by early Saturday morning as a potential Category 2 typhoon. It will be bringing strong, damaging winds, and heavy rains across Okinawa and the surrounding islands. IT will then continue moving northwestward and could make landfall in Eastern China, south of Shanghai, by Monday morning as a weakening cyclone. We’ll have another update tomorrow morning. If you are in Okinawa, consider preparing now and begin stocking up on supplies. Stormy conditions could begin as early as tomorrow evening. Stay safe!

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