Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Tropical Storm Fitow (Quedan) Update #5

Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 100213

Fitow (Bagyong Quedan) remains a Tropical Storm this morning as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 680km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,150km for northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Fitow is moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to form with a large concentration on the southern half of the circulation. Radial outflow remains good as well. Microwave analysis also suggest an eyewall that continues to improve with wrapping continuing to wrap around the center. We are still expecting Fitow to be upgraded to a Typhoon later tonight and should continue intensifying in the next two days due to the favorable conditions in the region.

There has been some significant changes with the forecasts from the computer models today. We continue to see a southward shift with the track for Fitow and it looks like the consensus is now showing a close approach near Okinawa by Friday and into Saturday. This is very important because it looks like Okinawa and nearby islands may experience typhoon conditions during those days. Even Taiwan and Eastern China should monitor the developments of Fitow because any slight movements will have a big impact on who will be affected by this system.

Please watch out for our Forecast Track which we'll put out later today. We'll also have another update later today.

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