Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Tropical Depression 26W Update #1

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 101613

A new Tropical Cyclone has developed near the Marianas Islands this morning. Tropical Depression 26W was last located approximately 130km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 26W is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Tropical Depression 26W is still in the early stages of development. However, it is starting to show signs of improvement this morning with good banding and strong convective activity near the center. TD 26W is currently located in an area of moderate wind shear but that is being offset by good equatorward outflow. Furthermore, the warm waters around the Marianas is helping to fuel the system.

Radar Image from NWS

Latest radar image from Hagatna, Guam shows the bulk of moderate rains staying offshore. However, isolated rain showers are still possible across Guam and nearby islands throughout the day today and into tomorrow. Furthermore, gusty winds and rough waves will dominate the weather in the region in the coming days. For the latest radar images and weather warnings for the Marianas, please click HERE (National Weather Service Website)

Tropical Depression 26W will continue to slowly intensify in the coming days and could become a typhoon by Saturday. It will also continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea but should start to turn more to the northwest by the weekend. Latest computer models show a track that is eerily similar to that of Typhoon Wipha so we're going to closely monitor this system and see if it will threaten Japan by next week.

We'll have another update later today.

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