Thursday, September 26, 2013

Tropical Depression 20W (Paolo) Update #1

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT

A new Tropical Cyclone has developed in the West Philippine Sea. Tropical Depression 20W (Bagyong Paolo) was last located approximately 440km west northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 20W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a consolidating cyclone with improving convection and banding wrappin around the low-level center. TD 20W/Paolo is located in an area of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The favorable conditions should help the system to intensify steadily in the coming days. Rains from the system are far enough and shouldn't pose any threat to Luzon. However, as TD 20W intensifies, we expect a surge of moisture from the southwest monsoon to impact parts of Luzon and Visayas today and tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 20W (Paolo) will continue in a generally westward motion under the influence of a ridge of high pressure located in Southern China. As said above, TD 20W is forecast to continue intensifying and could become a Tropical Storm later tonight. It even has a chance of becoming a Typhoon by Sunday. The general westward motion will bring TD 20W towards Vietnam by early next week bringing rains and winds in the region.

We'll have another update later today.

No comments:

Post a Comment