Sunday, August 11, 2013

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) Update #9 (w/ Video)

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 081113

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Here is our latest Video Update; it is 15 minutes long and packed with lots of important information. Stay throughout to get the in-depth analysis regarding Utor's impacts as it makes landfall in Luzon.

 Utor (Bagyong Labuyo) has intensified further and is now a Category 4 Typhoon! It was last located approximately 230km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 350km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Utor is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

 Radar Image from DOST PAGASA (Facebook)

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As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Signal Warnings to the following provinces:

Signal #3: Aurora, Nueva Viscaya, Mt. Province, Polilio Island, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Ecija, and Isabela.

Signal #2: Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, and Cagayan.

Signal #1: Albay, Sorsogon, Rest of Quezon, Laguna, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, and Metro Manila.

Rainfall Forecast Map (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 Areas under Signal #3 should expect strong Typhoon Winds of more than 120kph to occur within the next 12 hours. More importantly, the provinces of Aurora, Isabela, and Quirino should expect winds of 160 to even 200kph to occur early Monday morning! Signal #2 areas should expect Tropical Storm-force winds of around 100kph. Signal #1 should have winds of less than 65kph. All mentioned areas should also expect widespread light to moderate rains with occasional heavy rains throughout the night.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 Latest satellite image shows the pinhole-eye of Utor that is currently surrounded by strong convective activity. Utor looks like it is undergoing another round of intensification today which enabled it to reach Category 4 intensity. It still has about 8 hours before landfall so there is a very small chance that it attains Super Typhoon intensity. However, if it doesn't become a Super Typhoon, Utor is already a strong and very threatening cyclone that could bring widespread damage in Northern Luzon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Latest forecast track still puts Utor towards Casiguran between the hours of 3am and 6am Monday morning. Strong and damaging winds of 200kph or more could lash Casiguran and nearby coastal communities. Utor will then weaken significantly as it tracks over the mountains of Northern Luzon. It will exit through Ilocos Sur into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Monday afternoon as a Category 2 Typhoon. We expect Utor to then move northwestward towards Guangdong Province and possibly make landfall there by Wednesday afternoon.


Going back to Luzon, Utor should not only bring rains but strong winds as well. Areas in red could see 200kph which could destroy infrastructure and uproot massive amounts of trees. Please heed the warnings of your local officials, head to higher ground, stock up on food and water, and evacuate if you feel your house isn't strong enough to withstand the storm.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

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