Sunday, August 11, 2013

Super Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) Update #10

Issued (1630 UTC) 1230am PhT 081213

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Utor (Bagyong Labuyo) has intensified about three (3) hours ago prompting the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to put it as a Category 4 Super Typhoon! The eye of Utor was last located approximately 100km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 270km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Utor is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 11pm this evening, PAGASA has released Signal Warnings to the following provinces:

Signal #3: Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Pollillo Island, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, Abra,  Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.

Signal #2: Northern Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands.

Signal #1: Batanes, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Metro Manila.

Provinces under Signal #3 should expect strong Typhoon-force winds of 160 to even 200kph to occur tonight and will last through tomorrow. Signal #2 should have winds of 65 to 120kph. While Signal #1 signifies winds of less than tropical storm-force. Provinces mentioned here should also expect widespread heavy rains to occur over the next 24 hours. We expect as much as 200 to 300mm of rain in many areas.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image suggests that Super Typhoon Utor may have peaked in intensity and that it might be starting to weaken. The eye is no longer highly visible, although the convective activity remains strong. Since the system is starting to interact with the rough terrain of Northern Luzon, the circulation may have difficulty holding on to the intensity. This is obviously a good news as the system could be weakening during landfall. However, do note that Utor/Labuyo will remain a violent and dangerous Typhoon as it traverses Northern Luzon.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

Looking at the radars, Subic is picking up on widespread light to moderate rains impacting much of Central and Southern Luzon. As the inner rain bands of Utor continue to push inland, expect more rains to spread into the region. As mentioned above we expect as much as 300mm of rain especially in Northern Luzon. Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, could see 100 to 150mm of rain through tomorrow which could bring landslides and urban flooding. For the latest Radar Images and rainfall forecasts in the Philippines, click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Typhoon Utor should make landfall near Casiguran within the next three (3) hours. It will push onshore into the Aurora-Isabela border and then into Quirino. It will then move into Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, and into Ilocos Sur before exiting into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Monday afternoon.

We'll have another update later this morning.

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