Friday, August 9, 2013

Tropical Storm Utor (Labuyo) Update #3

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 081013

Tropical Depression 11W has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Utor (Bagyong Labuyo) continues to move across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 670km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Utor is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a rapidly consolidating cyclone with a well-developed Central Dense Overcast supported by good radial outflow. Further analysis also shows multiple bands wrapping around the low-level center. Microwave instruments also suggest an eyewall is beginning to form and could be completed later today.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Utor is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying today and could become a Typhoon as early as by tonight. Favorable conditions are forecast to linger along the path of the storm and we won't be surprised if Utor attains Category 2 (maybe even Category 3!) intensity before making landfall in Luzon early Monday morning.

Computer models are somewhat split as to the exact landfall point of this storm. Some take it north into Cagayan Province while others show a landfall along the Quezon-Aurora coast. Our latest forecast track has been shift to the south due to the continued westward track of the storm. Therefore, we are leaning more on a landfall towards the Aurora Province. Please do note that this will continue to change, especially as we get nearer to landfall. Please make sure to always coordinate with your local officials and continue monitoring the progress of this cyclone through PAGASA and also here in our blog.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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