Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (Nando) Update #6

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 082913

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (Bagyong Nando) continues to suffer from strong wind shear as it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The center of the storm was last located approximately 140km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 500km west southwest of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Kong-Rey is moving northward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, all Public Storm Warning Signals have been dropped by PAGASA. Meanwhile, the Central Weather Bureau continues to issue Heavy Rains and Typhoon Warnings across Taiwan. Residents here are advised to continue monitoring the developments in their area for the threat of flooding and landslides.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the strong convection affecting much of Taiwan. Contrary to what we forecast yesterday, it looks like wind shear never really weakened overnight. In fact, the center of circulation is now displaced well north from the main convection indicative of strong upper-level winds in the region. We no longer expect intensification as the unfavorable conditions in the East China Sea will lead to continued weakening in the coming days.

Radar Image from CWB

Radar image from Taiwan shows the widespread heavy rains impacting the island. Up to 300mm of rain has already fallen in some places and we're still expecting up to 100mm to even 200mm to fall throughout the day today. Threat of landslides and flashfloods will remain in the region in the coming days. For the latest radar images and forecasts from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website).

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey will continue moving across the East China Sea, weakening along the way. An approaching mid-latitude trough will slow down the weakening as outflow is expected to temporarily improve. However, by Saturday, Kong-Rey is expected to begin transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone and is also forecast to make landfall in the island of Kyushu by that time.

We'll have another update later today.

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