Monday, August 26, 2013

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (Nando) Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 082713

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (Bagyong Nando) has intensified overnight as it moves just east of Luzon. The center was last located approximately 230km east of Aparri, Cagayan or 300km southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Kong-Rey is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands, Signal #1 for Cagayan, Calayan Islands, Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Isabela. These provinces should continue to have stormy conditions with strong winds and widespread light to moderate rains. Seas will be rough and coastlines should expect high waves.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Kong-Rey is still battling moderate northeasterly wind shear that is displacing the convection away from the low-level center. Satellite analysis does suggest, however, that wind speeds near the center have slightly increased overnight. Further intensification is possible as wind shear slowly relaxes.

Radar Image from Aparri (PAGASA)

Widespread rains continue to affect parts of Northern Luzon as seen on this radar image from Aparri, courtesy of PAGASA. Many stations especially in Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte are reporting rainfall rates of up to 20mm per hour. Some places have also recorded as much as 100mm of rain since last night increasing the chances of flooding and landslides. Keep checking PAGASA and your local news stations for the latest information on the storm and warnings for your area.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We expect Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (Nando) to continue moving generally northward in the coming days, moving near Taiwan by tomorrow. Rains across Northern Luzon will continue through tomorrow as well. Kong-Rey should also steadily intensify as wind shear weakens a little bit and sea surface temperatures remain warm. We are not expecting a typhoon out of this however, as it could start to encounter unfavorable conditions by as early as Friday when it moves near the Ryukyu Islands.

We'll have another update later today.

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