Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Tropical Storm Jebi Update #3

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 080113

Tropical Storm Jebi continues to move across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) on its way towards Hainan Island. The storm was last located approximately 630km southeast of Haikou (Hainan) or about 760km south of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Jebi is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity located on the southwest quadrant of the storm. There is also some fragmented convection on the northeastern quadrant. Satellite analysis also shows the strongest winds are slightly displaced away from the low-level center. Some of the rains are beginning to move into parts of Vietnam and could also begin affecting Hainan later tonight.

Meanwhile, a low pressure area (Invest 93W) was spotted moving near Northern Luzon. This disturbance currently has a "MEDIUM" chance of development according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Invest 93W will bring scattered rains across Luzon today.

Going back to Jebi, we expect this storm to start affecting Hainan tonight. We still think a landfall in that island is highly likely by Friday evening. Jebi still has about 24 to 36 hours in the open waters of the South China Sea which should allow the system to slightly intensify before landfall.

We'll have another update later today.

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