Thursday, June 20, 2013

Tropical Depression 05W (Fabian) Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 062113

Tropical Depression 05W (formerly 94W), or Fabian as called by PAGASA, is now pulling away from the Philippines on its way towards Southern China. The system was last located approximately 500km northwest of Dagupan City, Philippines or about 520km south southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 05W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image depicts decent convective activity but not so much decent in terms of banding. In fact, the low-level center is partially exposed. Nevertheless, circulation is well-developed and winds have increased overnight. We also expect the wind shear to relax a little bit allowing the system to intensify into Tropical Storm strength.

Tropical Depression 05W is forecast to continue moving northwestward possibly becoming a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. It will be moving just south of Hong Kong by Saturday morning likely bringing rains and winds in the area. By Sunday morning, TD 05W is forecast to make landfall in Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China.

We'll have another update later tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment