Sunday, April 28, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 042813

Dry weather pattern continues to prevail over much of the Philippines these past two weeks. Dams around the country are starting to note the continuous decrease of their respective water levels. However, officials insist there's nothing to be worried about yet since the supply is still adequate for the immediate future.

But while much of the country basks in sunshine and hot temperatures, some computer models are hinting of a possible tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific later this week. The GFS model has been really consistent these past 3 days, showing a weak cyclone forming near the Marianas Islands either by Friday or by Saturday. So far, only the NAVGEM (former NOGAPS) model and to a certain extent, the CMC model , support this solution which means it's not set in stone just yet. Nevertheless, we'll continue to closely monitor the latest computer model solutions as well as the situation in the Western Pacific for any hints of cyclone formation.

IR Image from NRLMRY

For now, generally clear skies will continue to prevail over the Philippines. Northern Luzon may experience cloudy conditions with occasional light rains. Some isolated thunderstorms may also pop-up in certain places during the afternoon and early evening hours which is typical occurrence during the summer months.

We'll have another update by Friday (earlier if we figure a cyclone formation is imminent).

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