Sunday, January 6, 2013

Tropical Storm Sonamu Update #8

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 010613

Tropical Storm Sonamu is beginning to weaken as it meanders across the South China Sea. The storm was last located approximately 480km south southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Sonamu is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Sonamu is really struggling to maintain its structure due to the moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear. Convection continues to get sheared to the northwest leaving the low-level center nearly fully exposed. Some of those rainclouds are reaching Southern Vietnam bringing light rains of around 30mm in some areas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Sonamu should continue weakening and could be downgraded to a Tropical Depression by tomorrow afternoon. At this rate, we no longer expect Sonamu to reach the Malay Peninsula as a tropical cyclone. Instead, we now think the storm will slowly dissipate over the South China Sea over the next 3 days.


IR Image from NOAA

Meanwhile, Invest 94W is showing better organization today. This low pressure area was last located approximately 680km southeast of Davao City and is moving northwestward at 10kph. The low-level circulation center is still somewhat elongated but showed an improvement since yesterday. Wind shear is light to moderate and could give this LPA a chance to develop into a depression in the next 2 to 3 days.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

For now, rain showers extending from the LPA are affecting Mindanao and parts of Eastern Visayas. The rainfall map above shows where the heaviest rains are forecast for the next two days.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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