Sunday, January 13, 2013

Tropical Depression Bising Update #2 (FINAL)

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 011313

Tropical Depression Bising is now dissipating as it moves away from Luzon. The system was last located approximately 350km east of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum winds are between 30 and 60kph. TD Bising is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows TD Bising really weakening with very little convection associated with the system. We are also beginning to notice an interaction between Bising and a weak low pressure system emerging off the East China Sea. This LOW is bringing scattered rains across Southern Japan including the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa).

The combination of the remnants of Bising and the low pressure system will result in the forming of an intense mid-latitude cyclone (not tropical storms or typhoons) just south of Japan. This extra-tropical cyclone will move south of Honshu by tomorrow bringing rains and snow across Shikoku and Honshu. Some snow could even fall as far south as Tokyo by Tuesday. Suffice to say, TD Bising will no longer impact the Philippines. However, rains will still continue across parts of the country over the next few days.

3-Day Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

The resulting mid-latitude cyclone will bring a cold-front across Northern Luzon by tomorrow. Behind this front will be fresh north-easterly winds courtesy of the monsoon (Amihan). Cold air from Siberia will be rushing south across China and into Northern Philippines. The coldest air of 2013 could be recorded over the coming nights especially across Baguio City, Laoag, and parts of Cagayan Valley. Baguio could even dip into the low teens (as low as 12C) whilst cities near sea level could see temperatures drop into the upper teens; Laoag could see temperatures down to 16C while Central Luzon areas could see temperatures down to 18C. Manila could also see a slight cooldown but won't be as significant as the temperatures here are only forecast to go down into the low 20s.

Aside from the cooler temperatures, the cold front could also bring some scattered rains across Northern Luzon over the next few days. Highest chances of rain will be across Northeastern Luzon and parts of the Cordilleras. Farther to the south, the easterlies will be bringing its own round of rains across Eastern Visayas and parts of Mindanao. Some areas here could see light to even moderate rains especially during the afternoon hours which could amount up to 50mm of rain.

No Tropical Cyclones are forecast to form over coming days. Since Tropical Activity has weakened somewhat, we will be reverting to our 3-day updates. So our next update will be on Wednesday, January 16; unless something significant comes our way.

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