Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) has re-intensified into a Typhoon as it moves across the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. The storm was last located 520km west northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Bopha is moving north northeastward at 10kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a well-developed eye surrounded by strong convective activity. The combination of warm waters and an improvement in the poleward outflow has led to the intensification today. Dry air, which was supposed to weaken this system, is still not being entrained. In fact, we think Bopha may still intensify and could even reach Category 2 strength by tonight.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Favorable conditions will persist through tomorrow allowing Bopha to intensify a little bit more. It will also start to somewhat slow down as the steering layers in the region weaken. By Sunday, we expect the system to start weakening due to a combination of increasing wind shear and dry air. However, Bopha may move near Western Luzon that some light rains are possible and could even begin by as early as tomorrow. (Some rains could also impact Mindanao due to a weak Tropical Wave moving from the east) There are still some uncertainties though, whether the system will actually make a direct impact in Luzon. For now, we urge residents along the western coast to continue closely monitoring this system. For our forecast track above, we have decided to include much of Luzon island under our Forecast Cone of Error.
We'll have more update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 120712