Monday, December 3, 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) Update #16 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our latest Video Update for Bopha. It is a long and detailed video so we hope you stay throughout. You can scroll down for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track.

Text Update

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is currently intensifying as it nears the coast of Mindanao. The storm center was last located approximately 340km southeast of Bislig City, 410km east of Davao, or about 570km west of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are back up to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Bopha is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Surigao del Norte, Siargao, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon
Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, Davao del Norte, and Samal Islan. Signal #2 for Southern Leyte, Bohol
Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, North Cotabato, and Zamboanga del Norte.Signal #1 for Northern Palawan, Calamian Grp. Of Islands, Cuyo Island, Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Rest of Cebu, Camotes Islan, Zamboanga del Sur, Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, and South Cotabat.

The provinces above are forecast to feel the effects of Pablo later this evening and will through tomorrow evening. Residents in these areas should have evacuated by now. If you are planning to ride this storm out, make sure to have plenty of food, water, and medicine that will last for at least a week. Finally, always listen to the radio and on TV for the latest news and information from your local officials. Stay safe!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a very impressive typhoon bearing down on to Mindanao. The pinhole eye has returned and is currently surrounded by thick ring of convection indicative of the intensification in the past 6 hours. The eyewall replacement cycle has also been completed and combined with weak wind shear and warm waters, we expect Bopha/Pablo to intensify a little bit more before making landfall by tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is forecast to make landfall near the city of Bislig in Surigao del Sur early tomorrow morning (around 5 to 8am) as a high-end Category 4! However, stormy conditions will begin much earlier than that. We expect rain showers to start across Eastern Mindanao by 10pm tonight. Stormy conditions won't end though until tomorrow afternoon. After Surigao and Agusan, Bopha will head northwestward across Cagayan de Oro by tomorrow afternoon. It will have weakened after landfall but typhoon-winds are still possible in these areas. Also remember that heavy rains will be falling with amounts of up to 300 to 500mm possible especially in mountainous areas. If you are near a river, you must leave because we do think those tributaries will begin to overflow tomorrow as the waters from the mountains start falling down.

By Tuesday evening, Bopha will be moving across the islands in Visayas particularly across Siquijor, Negros, and Southern Cebu. Heavy rains and strong winds will also be felt in the areas mentioned. By Wednesday morning, Bopha will be moving just south of Panay and will head towards Northern Palawan by Thursday. Bopha will be weakening along the way as it cross the islands and also the waters in these regions will be cooler compared to the Philippine Sea. Bopha is forecast to move into the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea by  Friday and Saturday. It will remain a typhoon throughout our forecast time but will weaken over the oceans.

Again, please heed the warnings and stay safe! We'll have another update tomorrow morning as the system is making landfall. Another video update will be up tomorrow afternoon. If you have any questions or comments or if you have any storm videos or pictures, please email us at
Issued(2330 UTC) 730pm PhT 120312

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