Sunday, December 2, 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) Update #15

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) has weakened as it moves away from Palau and on towards Mindanao. The storm was last located approximately 300km west southwest of Palau or about 710km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Bopha is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has hoisted Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Surigao del Sur and the Northern Part of Davao Oriental. Signal #1 is up for Siquijor, Bohol, Biliran, Camotes Island, Southern Leyte, Leyte, Eastern Samar, Western Samar,  Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Dinagat Is., Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Rest of Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte including Samal Is., Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, and Lanao del Sur.

The provinces above will start to feel the effects of Bopha starting as early as this evening and will last through tomorrow (Tuesday). Again, we urge everyone here to prepare now if you haven't done so already. If you live in low-lying areas, near major rivers, or near mountains, you must evacuate! Always coordinate with the local officials to find out where the nearest shelters are. If you are staying at home, make sure it is strong enough to withstand strong winds as well as be far enough from major flooding. Stock up on food, water, and medicine that will last for at least a week. Stay safe!

Bopha spared much of Palau last night as the core of the system moved far enough to the south. Koror still reported near-typhoon force winds but certainly not as strong as we earlier thought. Latest reports from Koror are still indicating occasionally gusty winds and light to moderate rain showers. The city has received 30-50mm of rain so far which is also below our forecast from yesterday. Suffice to say, the worst is over for much of Palau and residents here should expect gradual improvement as the day goes on.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which is leading to the weakening. However, once (if) the system completes the cycle, we expect Bopha to intensify just a little bit before making landfall. The system has also expanded in size and so we expect light rains to start impacting Eastern Mindanao as early as this evening. Unfortunately, the Hinatuan Radar is out of service so we won't have a good idea on the rainfall coverage and intensities.

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is forecast to make landfall early tomorrow morning (Tuesday) near Bislig in Surigao del Sur. However, effects will be felt across Mindanao much earlier than that. Also expect nearby provinces to experience stormy conditions with heavy rains. Bopha will then cross Mindanao, weakening along the way. Bopha could move across Cagayan de Oro City by later Tuesday afternoon as a Category 1 typhoon. Then, the storm is forecast to move across Central Visayas impacting the islands of Cebu, Bohol, Negros, and Panay.

Here are some important information for major cities to be affected in Mindanao:
Davao City: Bopha (Pablo) will track north of the city. However, tropical storm-force winds (up to 100kph) are still possible along with rains of up to 100mm. Worst conditions will be around Tuesday morning (3am to around 10am)
Bislig City: This is where we expect Bopha to make landfall. Typhoon-force winds (up to 160kph) are possible along with very heavy rains. Coastal areas will be susceptible to storm surges of up to 2-3m (6-10ft) so please prepare. Rains will begin later this evening with the worst possible occurring from midnight on to 6am Tuesday morning.
Malaybalay City: Bopha will be passing just north of the city. Typhoon-force winds (up to 120kph) are possible along with very heavy rains. Stormy conditions will be early Tuesday morning (5am) and will last through early afternoon.
Butuan City: Bopha will be passing very near this city. Typhoon-force winds (up to 120kph) also possible along with very heavy rains. Worst conditions will occur early Tuesday morning and will last into the afternoon hours.
Surigao City: Bopha will be passing just south. Due to the water surrounding the area, we expect Typhoon-force winds (up to 140kph) to be highly possible along with the heavy rains. Worst conditions will begin early Tuesday morning to later that afternoon.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 120312

No comments:

Post a Comment