Sunday, October 7, 2012

Tropical Update

A Tropical Cyclone Formation is highly likely over the Philippine Sea in the next 24 hours. A disturbance west of the Marianas continues to slowly consolidate and could become a depression by tomorrow. Elsewhere, the remnants of Gaemi is bringing widespread rains across Indochina.

IR Image from NOAA

Invest 99W continues to slowly consolidate as it moves westward across the Philippine Sea. Disorganized convection are firing off in and around a low-level circulation center. An anti-cyclone overhead is providing light wind shear in the region. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are warm and are very conducive for cyclone development. If it does develop, 99W is forecast to remain in the Philippine Sea for the next few days as steering winds in the atmosphere are forecast to become weak

Meanwhile, the remnants of former cyclone Gaemi continues to bring widespread rains across Indochina today. Rains of up to 80mm are still being reported across Cambodia and Thailand and could linger in the next 2 days.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 100712

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