Sunday, October 7, 2012

Tropical Storm Prapiroon Update #1

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific! Invest 99W intensified overnight and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Prapiroon. The system is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 1,340km east of Luzon. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Prapiroon is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows an improving cyclone with convective activity continuing to fire up in and around the center. Radial outflow is being enhanced by an anti-cyclone directly over the storm. Light wind shear along with warm sea surface temperatures will allow TS Prapiroon to continue to intensifying and could actually become a typhoon by as early as tomorrow evening (Tuesday)!

Tropical Storm Prapiroon is forecast to continue moving slowly westward and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning or perhaps as early as later this evening. Medium-term forecast is still uncertain due to conflicting outputs by numerous computer models. We also expect the steering factors in this region to continually change in the next few days as fronts and ridges modify themselves.

We'll have more info in our afternoon update later this afternoon.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 100812

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