Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) Update #4 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our in-depth Video Update on Tropical Storm Son-Tinh. Scroll down below for the complete list of provinces under Signal Warnings from PAGASA. We also have our complete analysis of the storm along with our own Forecast Track.

**If you have your own videos or images from the system, please share them to us at

Text Update

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Bagyong Ofel) is now moving across the islands of Visayas bringing widespread rains and strong winds in the region. The center of the storm was last located approximately 90km northeast of Cebu City or about 30km south of Ormoc City, Leyte. The system has just moved off of Leyte Island and is currently passing near the Camotes Islands. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Son-Tinh (Ofel) is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Masbate, Romblon, Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran Island, Camotes Island, Capiz, Aklan, Boracay Island, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Northern Negros, and Dinagat Island. Signal #1 for Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Group of Island, Batangas, Lubang Island, Cuyo Island, Northern Samar, Antique, Iloilo, Southern Negros, Southern Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Siargao Island.

Areas under Signal #2 should expect winds of up to 100kph to occur within the next 24 hours. Areas under Signal #1, meanwhile, should expect winds of up to 60kph in the next 48 hours. All provinces in the list should also expect widespread rains over the next two days that could lead to flooding and landslides. Always coordinate with your local officials for any evacuation orders and warnings for your area!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a gradually improving storm with more convective activity and a more symmetrical-looking storm. Despite the interaction with the Visayas Islands, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh is maintaining its organization due to the weak wind shear, good moisture inflow, and good radial outflow. Widespread rains and strong winds now being reported across the Visayas and Mindanao areas due to the approaching storm.

Cebu Radar Image from PAGASA's Project NOAH

Latest radar image out of Cebu City shows the center of circulation just moving south of Ormoc City. Widespread rains now impacting Visayas particularly the islands of Samar, Leyte, Camotes, Bohol, and Cebu. Some of these rainshowers can drop as much as 20mm of rain in just an hour. Many stations are already reporting rainfall amounts of up to 80mm in the past 12 hours alone with the potential for 50 to 100mm of more rain falling tonight and into tomorrow. Because of the stormy conditions, airline flights and boat and ferry trips have already been cancelled in many parts of the Philippines stranding thousands of passengers. Furthermore, we are now beginning to receive reports of urban flooding in some cities. For the latest radar image and rainfall forecast for your area, please visit PAGASA's Project NOAH by clicking HERE

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Bagyong Ofel) is forecast to continue moving northwestward passing through the islands of Cebu, Negros, Panay, and eventually Mindoro. Widespread rains, strong winds, and rough surf are possible across the forecast track. Some rains may even impact Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, by tomorrow. Rains also possible for Palawan. Total rainfall amounts of up to 200mm are possible so please be wary of the threat of flash floods and landslides in your area.

By Friday, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh is forecast to exit into the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea. Depending on the land interaction in Visayas and the overall environment conditions, there is a small possibility of Son-Tinh becoming a Typhoon by Friday and Saturday, but for now, we decide to keep this system as a tropical storm throughout our forecast. By this weekend, Son-Tinh could threaten Vietnam.

We'll have another update on this system tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 102412

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