Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Tropical Storm Gaemi Update #1

NOTE: For the latest Video Update on both Gaemi and Maliksi, please click HERE

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. Tropical Storm Gaemi was last located approximately 690km south southeast of Hong Kong or about 440km west of the island of Luzon. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. Gaemi is currently moving east southeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a compact system that is starting to consolidate. Convective activity is improving in and around the circulation center. Poleward outflow remains good while the equatorward outflow is also improving. Gaemi is still too far from the Philippines to directly affect the country although a trough extending east of Gaemi's circulation is enhancing some rain showers across Luzon and Visayas. Some of these rains can bring as much as 20mm of rain in an hour increasing the chances of minor flooding especially in urban areas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Gaemi could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this evening and could continue moving close enough to bring more widespread rains across Luzon and also high waves across the western seaboard of the Philippines. By Thursday, however, we expect Gaemi to make a u-turn and head towards the west avoiding making landfall in the Philippines. Rains in the country will still linger into the next 2 days though even if Gaemi doesn't make landfall.

Tropical Storm Gaemi will continue slowly intensifying as it moves across the South China Sea. By this weekend, we expect the storm to impact Vietnam and parts of Indochina. There is generally good consensus among computer models and forecast agencies of bringing Gaemi towards Vietnam. However, a couple of models are actually bringing Gaemi to the east towards the Philippines. Looking at the forecasted atmospheric conditions, we do think Gaemi has a low chance of moving further east so for right now, we are closely following JTWC and JMA forecasts.

We'll have another update on this system tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100212

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