Friday, October 5, 2012

Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) Update #6 (w/ Video)

Here is our latest update on Tropical Storm Gaemi and also on a developing low pressure area near Guam that could become a Tropical Storm in the next few days. Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track for Gaemi.

Text Update

Tropical Storm Gaemi (Bagyong Marce) is now moving away from the Philippines and is heading towards Vietnam. The system was located approximately 620km west of Manila or about 650km east of the coast of Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are down to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. Gaemi is currently moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Storm Gaemi continues to suffer from strong wind shear around the South China Sea. Infra-red image above shows the bulk of convection is still displaced to the west leaving the low-level circulation center nearly fully exposed. All Public Storm Warning Signals in the Philippines have now been dropped by PAGASA and we expect Gaemi to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this evening. However, waves from the system's circulation can still be dangerous for sea travel as we've seen in the Southern Luzon and Visayas Region in the past 3 days where numerous small boats have been destroyed and sunk by high waves.

As for Luzon, widespread rains are pretty much absent here although isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours are still possible. However, Visayas area and Palawan will continue experiencing scattered thunderstorms in the next few days courtesy of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Some of these thunderstorms can produce severe weather and even weak tornadoes as was the case in Negros yesterday. You can head to PAGASA's Project NOAH by clicking HERE for the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts for the Philippines.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Going back to Tropical Storm Gaemi, the system is forecast to continue moving westward under the influence of the Subtropical Ridge. Gaemi is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam by early Sunday morning as a minimal Tropical Storm. It will then weaken to a Tropical Depression by Sunday afternoon as it moves north of Ho Chi Minh City. By Monday afternoon, Gaemi is forecast to eventually dissipate as it moves over Cambodia.

Despite the Gaemi being weak, the system can still bring widespread rains and even the threat of damaging winds and high waves along the coast of Vietnam. Furthermore, even though Gaemi dissipates, rains associated with the remnants, together with the expected surge of monsoon moisture, can still bring the threat of flooding across Indochina by early next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100512

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