Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) Update #4

Tropical Storm Gaemi (Bagyong Marce) has weakened overnight as it meanders west of Luzon. It was last located approximately 300km west northwest of Manila or about 200km west of Iba, Zambales. Maximum sustained winds are down to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Gaemi is currently quasi-stationary although it has been drifting southward in the past 12 hours.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has dropped all Public Storm Warning Signals across the Philippines.

IR Image from NOAA

Image above is a shortwave infra-red channel from NOAA showing the cloud formations associated with Gaemi. Combination of dry air entrainment and an increase in wind shear has the low-level circulation to become exposed (yellow arrow). Much of the convection (darker clouds in the image) are now displaced to the west of the center. As a result, we haven't seen widespread rains impact Luzon or Visayas.

Due to the unforeseen weakening last night, intensity forecasts have been scaled and the JTWC is no longer expecting Gaemi to become a Typhoon. As for the track, the storm is still forecast to turn to the west today as the Subtropical Ridge north of the system continues to strengthen. By Friday, Gaemi should be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility and  could then make landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm by Saturday afternoon.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 100412

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