Saturday, September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat Update #19 (w/ Video)

Here is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyon Lawin), Tropical Storm Ewiniar, and also on a couple of low pressure areas that we are watching across the Western Pacific. Update on Jelawat starts at 0:48 while our update on Tropical Storm Ewiniar begins at around the 8:12 mark; our update on the two Low Pressure Areas begin at 9:38. Again, thank you for watching our lengthy yet in-depth video update! Scroll down below for our complete Text Update along with Forecast Track for Typhoon Jelawat.

If you have your own videos or images from the system, please share them to us at

Text Update

Typhoon Jelawat (formerly Bagyong Lawin) is now moving away from Okinawa but is still lashing the Ryukyu Archipelago with strong winds and heavy rains. The center of Jelawat was last located approximately 170km northeast of Okinawa or about 80km south of Amami Island. Maximum sustained winds are down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Jelawat is moving northeastward at 35kph.

Kadena Air Base is now under TCCOR 1-Recovery meaning 50kt winds have ended in the area. However, non-emergency personnel are still now allowed to go outside and non-essential services will remain closed. Meanwhile, Japan Meteorological Agency continues to issue several Storm Warnings across Ryukyu Islands and even High Waves Warning extending north into Kyushu. Please continue to check with Kadena and JMA Officials for the latest forecasts and warnings in your area.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the center of Jelawat just south of Amami. Stations around Amami continue to report sustained winds of up to 150kph along with occasional gusts of up to 180kph. The system still remains symmetrical although it is starting to feel the effects of stronger upper-level winds with the northern half of convection beginning to get sheared to the northeast. Nevertheless, Jelawat still has a good chance of maintaining that typhoon intensity before making landfall in Honshu tomorrow.

Radar from JMA

Latest radar from Amami shows the center of Jelawat along with the inner and outer rain bands that are producing very heavy rainfall. Some of those bands could produce as high as 30mm of rain in an hour. In fact, we already have stations in Okinawa and the nearby islands collection nearly 300mm of rain just today! Fortunately, rains are tapering across Okinawa but will remain for Amami and the nearby islands. 100 to 150mm of rain are still possible as we head into tonight and tomorrow.

Aside from the heavy rains, Jelawat brought very strong typhoon-force winds across Okinawa earlier today. It brushed the western coast of the island around 11am Japan Time. Many stations recorded seeing sustained winds of 120 to 160kph. A gust of 220kph was also reported in Naha! As you might except, we are starting to receive many reports of damages to property brought by those winds. Many cars and trailer trucks were flipped, trees uprooted, and roofs blown away. Some are even saying that the effects of Jelawat are worse compared to Sanba and Bolaven which hit Okinawa this past 6 weeks.

If you have your own videos or images from the system, please share them to us at

For more on the radar images, warnings, and forecasts for your area, please visit Japan Meteorological Agency by clicking HERE

If you are inside Kadena, please consult your local authorities for instructions and warnings inside the base.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Jelawat will continue moving quickly to the northeast staying south of Kyushu and Shikoku but may still bring widespread rains in the islands along with strong winds and high waves along the coast. Jelawat could weaken to a Category 1 Typhoon early tomorrow morning (Sunday). We are forecasting the system to make landfall east of Kii Peninsula in the Chubu Region in Honshu between the hours of 10am and 6pm tomorrow (Sunday). After making landfall, Jelawat will weaken to a Tropical Storm and will pass within 100km northwest of Tokyo by Sunday night. Jelawat will move across Kanto and Tohoku Regions before exiting into the Pacific Ocean in the early hours of Monday morning.

Despite the forecast weakening, Jelawat will still be a strong and dangerous system as it moves across Honshu. The winds may be weaker but the system can still do damage and will definitely bring widespread heavy rains across Eastern Honshu including Tokyo Area. Please do not take this storm lightly and please take the necessary precautions.

We'll have another update on Jelawat tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 092912

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