Monday, September 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Ewiniar Update #3

Tropical Depression 19W has intensified overnight and is now a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Ewiniar was last located approximately 530km southwest of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Ewiniar is currently moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest infra-red image shows that much of the convection is still displaced to the east of the center. The low-level circulation is still partly exposed as strong westerly shear remains in the region. Shear has weakened, though, in the past 12 hours and more weakening is forecast which should allow TS Ewiniar to continue intensifying.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will approach the Iwo To Island later today bringing gusty winds and rain showers in the area. Rest of the Ogasawara Islands will also experience stormy conditions along with rough waves in the next 24 to 36 hours.

TS Ewiniar is forecast to continue moving northward, slowly intensifying along the way. It could become a severe tropical storm with near-typhoon intensity by Friday. Current forecast tracks are still taking Ewiniar within 400km southeast of Honshu by Friday afternoon. As always, since the cone still includes Southeast Honshu regions including Tokyo, residents here should continue monitoring the developments of Ewiniar.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 092512

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